By Peter Schirmer
From Foresight, Vol. 5, No. 2
published 1998
A recent statewide survey conducted for the Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research Center by the University of Kentucky Survey Research Center finds that citizens of the Commonwealth are moving rapidly into the Information Age. While access to computers has only inched upward over the past two years, Internet exploration has soared across the Commonwealth.
Figure 1: Percent of Kentucky Adults with Access to a Computer at Home, Work, School or Elsewhere
Two years ago, in a 1996 Foresight, we reported that 32 percent of surveyed adults in Kentucky said they had a personal computer in their homes, and another 33 percent did not have a computer at home but had access to one at work, at school or elsewhere. Thus, a total of 65 percent of adults in Kentucky had access to a personal computer somewhere. In a survey completed in the spring of 1998, we found that the share of adults with a computer at home had risen from 32 percent to 41 percent. However, the share of adults with access to a computer anywhere had barely changed, from 65 percent to 68 percent, suggesting that more of those who had access to a computer outside the home two years ago now have their own computers.
Figure 2: Internet Use in Kentucky, by Region
Our 1996 survey and article also examined Internet use in the state, and here we find a much more interesting story emerging over the past two years.(1) In 1996, we found that about 26 percent of adults in Kentucky had used the Internet in past years. In 1998, rates of Internet access had increased to 41.8 percent. Two years ago, we found that younger people and more educated people were the most likely to have accessed the Internet. While that still remains true today, Internet use has soared at all age and education levels. Moreover, regional disparities in Internet use have virtually disappeared, with the exception of eastern Kentucky, which continues to lag behind the rest of the state. Low Internet usage in eastern Kentucky may be explained by lower rates of home computer ownership. Computer users at home are more likely to have accessed the Internet than computer users at work, school or elsewhere.
Figure 3: Internet Use in Kentucky, by Education Level
Two years ago, we also reported that industry analysts were expecting computer ownership rates to stabilize around 40 percent of households by the end of the decade. However, just around the time that our article appeared, personal computer prices began a steady decline, from an average selling price of about $1,750 in the summer of 1996 to about $1,250 by the beginning of 1998. Given this new affordability, computer ownership has begun to rise again. Business Week recently called the personal computer "the Model T of the Digital Age." Industry analysts now think computer ownership may reach 60 percent by the early part of the next decade. Forrester Research Inc. reports that the median income of people planning to buy a personal computer is $27,000, compared to $50,000 for current computer owners. Even as price barriers fall—low end PCs may cost as little as $600 by the end of the year—other barriers, including those related to age and education, may persist.
Estimates
of Internet use for both 1996 and 1998 are age and education adjustments of the raw numbers. The raw rates of use were 25.6 percent in 1996 and 40.6 percent in 1998. Return to text.