Books

Measures and Milestones 2006: Trends Affecting Kentucky's Future

Gavel-to-gavel presentations and discussions from the 13th annual conference held in Lexington in 2006 where researchers discussed timely topics certain to influence the future of the Commonwealth. They include the challenges and changes posed by an aging population, the future scope and likely role of an immigrant population, the limitations and promise of our current health care system, unrealized educational promise, and much more. (March 2007)

Purpose, Publications, and Products 2007

The third edition of the Purpose, Publications, and Products series, updates the publication index as well as expands the comprehensive data table, adding both new trends and new data from previous trends. This booklet serves as a reference guide to more than 12 years of research and reporting, a valuable resource for both policymakers and the public.  (March 2007)

Visioning Kentucky’s Future: Measures and Milestones 2006

In accordance with the Center’s statutory requirements, this report is designed to inform policymakers and citizens about trends that are likely to influence the future of our state. The Center has again combined its biennial trends report with its companion visioning project in a single volume. This represents the seventh trends report and the sixth in a series of volumes focusing on the state’s progress toward a citizen-defined vision of the Commonwealth’s future. This report is organized around five sections: communities, education, economy, environment, and government. Within these five areas are 26 long-term goals derived from a citizen vision of the Commonwealth’s future. The report also includes over 100 benchmarks, trends, or indicators that are measures of the progress made toward each goal and the results of a statewide opinion poll that gauged citizen assessments of progress and the importance of each goal. (December 2006)

Purpose, Publications, and Products 2005

After more than a decade of gathering data and reporting on crucial trends in the Commonwealth, the Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research Center released this comprehensive index of prior publications, sorted by both subject and chronology. Rather than merely encapsulate the Center’s bibliography, this booklet also included “Trends at a Glance,” an exhaustive compendium of data collected over the previous 11 years, covering every area of policy, including agriculture, transportation, education, the environment, and more. (March 2005)

Visioning Kentucky’s Future: Measures and Milestones 2004

In accordance with the Center’s statutory requirements, this report is designed to inform policymakers and citizens about trends that are likely to influence the future of our state. For the first time the Center has combined its biennial trends report with its companion visioning project in a single volume. This represents the sixth trends report and the fifth in a series of volumes focusing on the state’s progress toward a citizen-defined vision of the Commonwealth’s future. This report is organized around five sections: communities, education, economy, environment, and government. Within these five areas are 26 long-term goals derived from a citizen vision of the Commonwealth’s future. The report also includes 103 benchmarks, trends, or indicators that are measures of the progress made toward each goal and the results of a statewide opinion poll that gauged citizen assessments of progress and the importance of each goal. Also included is the State of the Commonwealth Index, a single number that summarizes Kentucky’s overall quality of life relative to other states over time. Based on data for 1990 to 2001 derived from national surveys and studies of various indicators of well-being in the states, the State of the Commonwealth Index includes 26 different factors, like the crime rate, teen pregnancy, poverty, voter participation rates, computer access, per capita income, educational attainment and achievement rates, and toxic releases to the environment.  (December 2004)

At the Crossroads: Prospects for Kentucky’s Educational Future, From Preschool to Postsecondary

Proceedings from the Center's tenth annual conference, held in Louisville, Kentucky on November 18, 2003, with joint support from the Kentucky Higher Education Assistance Authority and the Kentucky Higher Education Student Loan Corporation, "The Student Loan People," and the partnership of the state’s leading education agencies and organizations. The day-long conference highlighted distinguished, nationally recognized speakers on prospects for our education future and featured a panel discussion by state leaders taped and later aired by Kentucky Educational Television. The conference provided significant food for thought for policymakers, educators, and all citizens of the Commonwealth who are interested in and concerned about the future of education. (June 2004)

The Road Ahead: Uncertainty and Opportunity in a Changed World

As part of its mission to advise and inform the Governor, the General Assembly, and the public about the long-term implications of trends and policies, the Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research Center presents the 2002 biennial trends report, the fifth in this series. In accordance with the Center’s statutory requirements, this report is designed to inform policymakers and citizens about trends that are likely to influence the future of the state. There are 13 chapters written by nine different authors from six different agencies or organizations. The report is designed so that it is not necessary to read it in its entirety. That is, each chapter can be read as a separate piece, and understanding it does not depend on having read the previous chapter, although on occasion one chapter will refer to material in another. This structure enables readers who have an interest in a specific topic to read only the chapter that deals with that area. The work can also be read from front to back.  (December 2002)

Planning for the Future: Findings from Research on the Commonwealth's Current and Coming Retirees

Part of the Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research Center’s mission, as outlined in its founding legislation, is to serve as a catalyst for change in the way government decisions are made by providing insight into the broader context. To do so, the Center was charged with responsibility for considering the long-term implications of policy, critical trends, and emerging issues that may have a significant impact on the state. What follows is largely an analysis of findings from a 2000 survey developed jointly with the University of Kentucky (UK) Sanders-Brown Center on Aging and conducted by the UK Survey Research Center. It is complemented by more recent survey findings. Together, they offer critical insight into the implications of Kentucky’s aging population. While many of the findings here have been presented in other forms and venues, we make them broadly available to policymakers and the public with this report. It should be of interest to all who understand and recognize the importance of anticipating the future and the growing population of older citizens who will be central to it. (September 2002)

Visioning Kentucky's Future: Measures and Milestones 2002

Part of the Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research Center’s mission, as outlined in its founding legislation, is to serve as a catalyst for change in the way government decisions are made by providing insight into the broader context. To do so, the Center was charged with responsibility for considering the long-term implications of policy, critical trends, and emerging issues that may have a significant impact on the state. This is the fourth in a series of volumes focusing on the status of 26 long-term goals derived from a citizen vision of the Commonwealth’s future. The report includes benchmarks or indicators that are measures of the progress made toward each goal and the results of a statewide opinion poll that gauged citizen assessments of progress and the importance of each goal. This report should be of interest to all who believe in the importance of improving Kentucky’s future. (June 2002)

Financing State and Local Government: Future Challenges and Opportunities

The 2001 Conference Proceedings

Conference proceedings from the 2001 conference, which focused on financing state and local government. (May 2002)

The Center completes a three-volume exploration of higher education with this report. In light of the Commonwealth’s goal of increasing postsecondary enrollment by 50 percent over the next 20 years, the Center has reported on a cost-benefit analysis of some of the social benefits of higher education and the results of a survey of high school students. Here, we report on findings from case studies of four Kentucky high schools that were selected based upon the relationship of postsecondary outcomes predicted by a comprehensive data analysis and actual college-going rates. From this look at the experiences, the programs, and the personalities of these schools, we glean insight into some of the intangible ingredients that cannot be captured in a quantitative analysis, the stuff that helps make high schools work. From policymakers at every level to ordinary citizens of the Commonwealth, all who are interested in and concerned about improving the Commonwealth’s educational status will find this report of interest. (April 2002)

In conjunction with the University of Kentucky Martin School of Public Policy and Administration, the Center reports here on tax policy in the Commonwealth. This collection of articles by some of the state’s leading experts considers the underlying principles and purposes of tax systems and examines the Commonwealth’s overall tax structure in light of these, considering the adequacy of our current system over the long term, its fairness to families and businesses, and its competitiveness. This report also explores the implications of economic and demographic trends for the future and the challenges and opportunities that efforts to reform and modernize our tax system face in view of their history here and, more recently, in other states. (November 2001)

Results of a survey designed to learn what Kentucky high school students think about the pursuit of learning opportunities after high school and how they are investing their time in anticipation of possible postsecondary education attendance. (October 2001)

Conference proceedings from the 2000 conference, which focused on the New Economy. (July 2001)

A cost-benefit analysis of some of the social benefits Kentucky realizes from an educated populace. (June 2001)

The Center presents the 2000 biennial trends report, the fourth in this series. (December 2000)

Part of the Visioning Kentucky’s Future project, a progress report on 26 long-term goals for the future. Includes results of a statewide citizen survey. (April 2000)

Michael T. Childress, Editor

An estimated 30 percent of the American population age 14 and over will have purchased something online by 2002. However, according to most estimates, only a small percentage of the sales and use tax owed on these purchases is ever paid. This creates an alarming trend for state and local governments since many depend heavily on sales tax revenue to finance government operations and programs. The purpose of this report, therefore, is to educate the public and policymakers about the range of issues surrounding this topic, provide estimates on the long-term implications for the state budget, and discuss the policy options for enhancing compliance to the use tax. (December 1999)

by Michal Smith-Mello, Julia Field Costich, and F. Douglas Scutchfield

The possibilities for medical science appear virtually unlimited, yet a growing number of Americans do not have access to necessary primary and preventive health care because they cannot afford it. Despite sustained job growth and record low unemployment, the nation’s uninsured population increased by an average of 1 million people a year over the past decade, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Without a structural remedy for this persistent flaw in our system, public and private responses to the rising cost of health care may further limit inclusion. Thus, the dilemma of access to health care in the United States may become more complicated and more difficult to resolve. (November 1999)

by Michael T. Childress

It will surprise almost no one to learn that the research on child development tells us that the quality of child care has a lifelong effect on children, and, by extension, their parents and society. Depending on the nature of the care, that effect can be positive or negative. Unfortunately, research done by the Kentucky Long-Term Policy Center shows that child care in Kentucky, like most of the other states, is not high quality. (October 1999)

The Future Well-Being of Women in Kentucky

Edited by Michal Smith-Mello, Michael T. Childress,
Jerry Sollinger, and Billie M. Sebastian

Here, in a series of articles prepared by staff and by some of the state's leading policy experts, we focus on the implications of economic, political, and social trends for the future well-being of women in Kentucky. We consider a range of issues, from the difficult balance between work and family to the jobs and wages Kentucky women are likely to find in the marketplace, from the "feminization" of higher education to the consequences of welfare reform, from gaps in political leadership to the fundamental issues of health and personal safety. This report should be of interest to all who seek realization of the Commonwealth's full potential. (April 1999)

Kentucky's Teachers: Charting a Course for KERA's Second Decade

by Stephen Clements

This report, which was prepared by Stephen Clements, an assistant professor in the Department of Educational Policy Studies and Evaluation at the University of Kentucky, outlines mounting national evidence of the importance of teacher quality to student performance. The report cites a number of trends that will influence the quality of Kentucky’s teaching force in the years to come, including the anticipated retirement of as many as a quarter of those currently teaching within the next three years and predicted shortages of teachers in some subject areas. Additionally, the report examines the roles that teacher training, alternative certification, professional development, and teacher salaries play in teacher quality. (March 1999)

The Leadership Challenge Ahead

by Michael T. Childress, Peter Schirmer, and Michal Smith-Mello

Our third biennial trends report examines four broad trends affecting Kentucky: the rise of the wired community, a shifting economic paradigm, a deepening divide, and changing governmental responsibilities. A CD-ROM accompanying the report compiles five years of work at the Center. It contains 12 full books, the Kentucky State Budget Game, and several articles that appeared in Foresight, our quarterly publication. This report should interest all policymakers and citizens who are concerned about creating a bright and prosperous future for the Commonwealth. (December 1998)

Civil Society in Kentucky

by Peter Schirmer
Ryan Atkinson, Jeff Carroll, and Michal Smith-Mello

This report offers an assessment of Kentucky’s civil society and then examines three factors that affect it: leadership development programs, government, and funding. We hope it will become a vital resource of ideas and contact information for policymakers, organizations, informal groups, and private citizens who want to strengthen civil society in their communities. (October 1998)

Entrepreneurs and Small Business—Kentucky's Neglected Natural Resource

by Michael T. Childress and Michal Smith-Mello, Peter Schirmer

This report contains results from a series of surveys intended to provide new information about Kentucky's entrepreneurial climate. It also includes recommendations for improving entrepreneurship and small business development in Kentucky. (June 1998)

Visioning Kentucky's Future: Measures and Milestones 1998

The second in our Visioning Kentucky's Future series, this volume presents the first biennial assessment of the state's progress on 26 long-term goals. In addition, it includes the results of a first-ever, statewide citizen survey that asks Kentuckians where they think we stand on these important goals for the future of the Commonwealth. (May 1998)

The Circuits Come to Town

by Peter Schirmer and Stephan J. Goetz

This report examines technology use in the Commonwealth and its effect on the electronic delivery of government services. (December 1997)

Exploring the Frontier of the Future

edited by Michael T. Childress, Billie M. Sebastian, Peter Schirmer, Michal Smith-Mello
with Jeff Carroll, Matt Udie, Ryan Atkinson

Our second biennial trends report is an edited collection of chapters from experts across the state. The wide-ranging report covers topics from housing and human rights to technology and transportation. The authors come from the private, public, and nonprofit sectors, from the University of Kentucky, the University of Louisville, and the regional universities. (December 1996)

Forecasting Kentucky's Environmental Futures

by Peter B. Meyer, Thomas S. Lyons, Vincent Mani

This report examines policy alternatives and identifies directions for policy change that hold the promise of sustainable development that enhances both the socioeconomic well-being and the quality of the physical environment of the people of Kentucky. (July 1996)

Choosing Prosperity

by Michal Smith-Mello, Susan Blankenship, Earl Hamm Jr., James Strohmaier
with Melissa A. Taylor, Charles C. Nett

With recognition of the unique strengths and weaknesses the Commonwealth brings to the challenge of developing the full potential of its labor force, we examine current assets and liabilities, the array of institutional responses we have brought to the challenge of workforce development, and ways of balancing differences between public and private roles and maximizing returns on investments in workforce development. (April 1996)

Scanning Kentucky 1995

by Billie Sebastian

In 1994, the Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research Center established a statewide scanning program to monitor emerging issues that may have a significant impact on the Commonwealth. The Center has collected and analyzed scans on a broad range of topics, considered their possible impact on various state agencies, and identified those individual scans with the most significant implications for Kentucky. The results of these efforts are presented here, with a summary of scans from 1995. (March 1996)

$5.8 Billion and Change

by Peter Schirmer, Michael T. Childress, Charles C. Nett

Does Kentucky have a structural deficit? Will the current revenue structure (consisting of various taxes, fees, investments, governmental transfers, and so forth) be able to support the current level of services in coming years, or will spending cutbacks be necessary in order to maintain a balanced budget? This report suggests that Kentucky does, in fact, have a structural deficit. (March 1996)

Visioning Kentucky's Future

This publication is the product of an extraordinarily inclusive process, which invited and encouraged citizens to contribute at public forums, in written comments and suggestions, and as participants in the working conference. It strives to capture a vision of what Kentuckians want our state to be. Like this document, the process of arriving at our desired destination cannot be achieved by any state agency or organization in isolation. In order to be valid, it must remain a collective effort, one that routinely engages citizens from across the Commonwealth. (December 1995)

Reclaiming Community, Reckoning with Change

by Michal Smith-Mello

Reversing the decline many of our rural communities have experienced demands that we connect with the global community and enhance the capacity of communities to negotiate this demanding new international environment. Ultimately, change in the larger, global context will either propel improved circumstances throughout rural Kentucky in the 21st Century or ensure its continued marginalization. (December 1995)

Farms, Factories and Free Trade

by Peter Schirmer, Melissa A. Taylor

We begin this report by asking how globalization might affect two cornerstones of Kentucky's rural economy—agriculture and manufacturing. Next, we report the results of a survey of rural manufacturing firms, and explore the question of whether rural firms are prepared for an era of increased competition and increased opportunity. Following the survey is a special section from Dr. R.E. Burnett, Assistant Director of the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the University of Kentucky. Dr. Burnett explains why many small and rural firms aren't well-prepared for globalization and suggests what can be done to help these firms. We conclude with a discussion of emerging strategies which enable rural firms to help themselves become more competitive. (December 1995)

Scanning Kentucky 1994

by Kimberly M. Mayo, Peter Schirmer, Billie Sebastian

In 1994, the Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research Center established a statewide scanning program to monitor emerging issues that may have a significant impact on the Commonwealth. The Center has collected and analyzed scans on a broad range of topics, considered their possible impact on various state agencies, and identified those individual scans with the most significant implications for Kentucky. The results of these efforts are presented here, with a summary of scans from 1994. (March 1995)

The Context of Change: Trends, Innovations and Forces Affecting Kentucky's Future

by Michal Smith-Mello, Peter Schirmer

This inaugural biennial trends report of the Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research Center examines three broad topics. First, we outline some of the demographic trends that are likely to influence the people and the families who will form the communities of tomorrow. Secondly, we turn to an array of changes that are shifting the economic floor beneath Kentuckians and increasing the difficulty and the complexity of the pursuit of prosperity. Finally, we discuss some of the many cornerstones that provide an effective foundation for progress, including both physical infrastructure and increasingly important human potential. (December 1994)

The Future of Burley Tobacco

by Michael T. Childress

The purpose of this research project is to identify the factors that are affecting tobacco's future; ascertain their likely outcome over the next 10 years; delineate their potential consequences on future burley quotas; understand the economic implications of a changing burley quota; and develop recommendations for policymakers that facilitate a best case scenario and hedge against a worst case scenario. (September 1994)